IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE IN BANGKOK, 2019-2024: AN INTERRUPTED TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic altered consumption behavior and waste generation patterns in major cities worldwide. Quantitative studies in Bangkok remain limited. This study aims to assess the impact of COVID-19 on per-capita waste generation in Bangkok using Interrupted Time Series (ITS) analysis, comparing pre-, during-, and post-pandemic periods. Monthly waste data from 50 Bangkok districts (October 2010–September 2024, n = 175 months) were analyzed using segmented linear regression with Newey-West HAC standard errors (maxlags = 12). Three intervention points were specified: plastic bag ban (January 2020), COVID-19 onset (February 2020), and 4-plastic ban (January 2022). Analysis was performed in Python 3.12. Mean per-capita waste declined from 1.874 kg/person/day pre-COVID to 1.537 kg/person/day during the pandemic (−18.0%). ITS analysis revealed an immediate level decrease of −0.230 kg/person/day attributable to COVID-19 (p = 0.078), with a subsequent increasing trend of +0.105 kg/person/month (p = 0.104). COVID-19 significantly altered Bangkok's waste generation patterns with an initial decline followed by recovery. These findings have implications for public health emergency preparedness and waste management planning.
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