The Study on Futures of Emergency Medical Services System of Thailand

Abstract

Thailand’s four preceding National Emergency Medical Service Plans, characterized by short-term 3-5 year frameworks, demonstrated insufficient long-term strategic vision and cross-sectoral integration, rendering them  inadequate for addressing BANI World complexities. This study explores Thailand’s Emergency Medical Services (EMS) future through 2037 by analyzing current conditions, signals of change, megatrends and driving forces shaping system evolution to inform strategic planning and policy development. Comprehensive future research methodology was employed, incorporating exploratory forecasting and scenario building techniques. Four stakeholder groups policymakers, practitioners, subject matter experts, and service users participated through semi-structured interviews (n=29) and scenario-building workshops (n=43). Data analysis identified certainties and uncertainties influencing EMS development pathways. Results: the study identifies certainties such as an aging population leading to labor shortages and advancements in technology and uncertainties, including economic stability and disaster risks, as pivotal influences on EMS development. Key challenges within the EMS system include insufficient governance, financing, workforce, and technological infrastructure, alongside a reliance on imported medical products and fragmented service delivery. Based on these analyses, the study outlines four future scenarios for Thailand’s EMS over the next 15 years. Scenario 1, “World-Class EMS,” envisions Thailand achieving international standards with advanced technology and innovation, becoming a global hub for emergency and health services.

Scenario 2, “Comprehensive EMS for Disaster Readiness,” focuses on developing a robust system capable of seamless collaboration with related ecosystems to effectively respond to emergencies and natural disasters. Scenario 3, “Traditional EMS Over Time,” describes a gradual and incremental EMS development emphasizing integration with health and public health systems while fostering community-level emergency prevention. Scenario 4, “EMS in Crisis and Chaos,” portrays a fragmented EMS system plagued by inequitable resource distribution and limited accessibility, resulting in disparities in service delivery. To address these scenarios, the study proposes seven key policy recommendations: (1) promoting  emergency medical and health literacy, (2) integrating EMS with public health and healthcare systems, (3) aligning EMS

with disaster management frameworks, (4) developing services for non-emergency patients, (5) enhancing workforce capacity and skills, (6) advancing EMS innovation and technology, and (7) reforming financial, legal, and structural frameworks. Ultimately, the study emphasizes the importance of addressing critical challenges, leveraging technology, and aligning policies with socio-economic contexts to ensure Thailand’s EMS achieves international standards and responds effectively to future emergencies and disasters.